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Outlook

Outlook 2019

The e-commerce market is expected to continue its strong growth and will remain the main driver of the performance in Parcels. We will focus on growth potential of our business by improving the balance between volume, profitability and cash flow. We expect improving operational efficiency, partly offset by the impact from the tight labour and transport market. We will continue to expand our network by opening new sorting depots. To solidify our position as the leading e-commerce logistics company in the Benelux, we will also further develop our service propositions, for example in growth areas such as food and health.

In Mail in the Netherlands we expect our addressed mail volumes to decline by 8% to 10% in 2019 which will be partly offset by price increase. An important project is the switch to an equal flow model, a step change in business model that enables us to adapt the organisation to future volume decline. We expect cost savings of between €45 million and €65 million. Based on the new draft decision on Significant Market Power we adjust the expected impact from ACM measures to between €50 million and €70million on an annualised basis, fully visible in 2021.



Revenue

Underlying cash operating income/margin

In € millions

2018

outlook 2019

2018

outlook 2019

Parcels

1.555

+ low teens

117 (7,5%)

7,5% to 9,5%

Mail in the Netherlands

1.678

- mid single digit

93 (5,5%)

3% to 5%

PostNL Other / eliminations

(461)


(22)


Total

2.772

+ low single digit

188

170 - 200

Following the announcement on the 25th of February 2019 ’PostNL and Sandd to form one strong national postal network for the Netherlands’, the financial outlook and dividend perspective for 2019 might change. The financial consequences are explained in the separate press release and presentation.

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