Outlook

2017

The outlook for underlying cash operating income in 2017 is €220 million - €260 million. Considering the faster than anticipated emergence of the financial impact of the earlier ACM measures, the developments in International, a lower margin in cross-border mail and some positive incidentals, we expect to end the year towards the lower end of this range. In Parcels, we expect our revenue growth to improve to a low teens’ percentage. We adjust our revenue outlook in International from mid-teens to high single digit, mainly explained by the delay in recovery in Germany and the slower than expected development of Spring in the first half of the year. For 2020, our ambition for underlying cash operating income is between €310 million - €380 million. These expectations are subject to the final implementation of the Significant Market Power decision.


Revenue

Underlying cash operating income/margin


2016

outlook 2017

CAGR 2017-2020

2016

outlook 2017

ambition 2020

Mail in the Netherlands

1,877

- low single digit

- low single digit

160 (8.5%)

6.5 to 8.5%

8 to 10%

Parcels

967

+ low teens

+ high single digit

106 (11.0%)

10 to 12%

10 to 12%

International*

1,017

+ high single digit

+ mid single digit

14 (1.4%)

1 to 3%

2 to 4%

PostNL Other / eliminaties 

-448

-35


Total

3,413

+ mid single digit

+ mid single digit

245

220 to 260

310 to 380

*On 30 December 2016, PostNL acquired the remaining 50% shares of HIM Holtzbrinck 25 GmbH resulting in 100% ownership of the shares in the company. For 2017, the acquisition will result in additional revenues (2016 comparative number for revenue: €80 million) and higher underlying cash operating income within International. The acquisition is included in our outlook 2017 numbers. The outlook 2017 excludes acquisition effects within Parcels.

Ambition 2020

The acceleration of our transformation translates in improved results towards 2020: our ambition for underlying cash operating income for 2020 is between €310 million – €380 million (previously €285 million – €355 million).

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